02 October 2025 | News by PAGASA
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4
Tropical Storm #PaoloPH
Issued at 5:00 AM, 02 October 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
PAOLO INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
Location of Center (4:00 AM): The center of Tropical Storm PAOLO was estimated based on all available data at 705 km East of Infanta, Quezon (14.6°N, 128.2°E).
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 250 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
Mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, the northern portion of Zambales (Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz), Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, the northern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel, San Ildefonso), the northern portion of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba, Mabalacat City), the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar) including Polillo Islands, and the northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 3 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone PAOLO.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal that will likely be hoisted throughout its passage is Wind Signal No. 3. However, since the possibility of reaching typhoon category before landfall is not ruled out, the worst case scenario is Wind Signal No. 4.
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m within 36 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 3 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Gale Warning may be raised over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon this afternoon in anticipation of rough to very rough sea conditions caused by the passage of PAOLO.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas†for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PAOLO is forecast to move generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, PAOLO may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow (03 October) morning. Further southward shift of track is possible depending on the strength of the high pressure area located north of PAOLO. After crossing the landmass of Northern Luzon, it will emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow afternoon and will continue moving west northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday (04 October) morning.
• PAOLO will continue to intensify while over the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category tomorrow early morning. Further intensification into a typhoon prior to landfall is not ruled out. However, based on the intensity forecast, intensification into typhoon is highly likely once PAOLO emerges over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA